Early Warning Signalling with Confidence

During my PhD (and also after) I worked with artificial neural networks. I considered that the weights in these networks should not be based upon probabilities only, they should be made into distributions so you could also tell how much you believed in something according to the Bayesian view. I was not so very good in statistics at that time but got some help from a good friend in our group to set up some approximations for the weight distributions.

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I don't want to consider me as the inventor here. This was a team effort where each part provided essential ideas and with combined effort we came up with a working solution. (one geek is good, but with plenty of them you can do wonders).

Link to paper: Bayesian neural networks with confidence estimations applied to data mining

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